Domestic Political Consolidation and Foreign Policy Autonomy in Emerging Democracies: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and South Africa (2023-2025)
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Nana-Firdausi Mohammed-Yinusa
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DOI :10.5281/zenodo.18151112
- 1.Department of Political Science, Skyline University Nigeria, Kano State, Nigeria
This study
examines how domestic political consolidation shapes foreign policy autonomy in
emerging democracies, using a comparative analysis of Nigeria and South Africa
during the 2023–2025 period. While both countries possess substantial material
capabilities and long-standing regional leadership roles, they experienced
marked constraints on their foreign policy autonomy amid electoral transitions,
economic pressures, security challenges, and shifting geopolitical alignments.
Drawing on neoclassical realism and two-level game theory, the study adopts a
qualitative, conceptual research design based on systematic secondary data
analysis to trace the domestic mechanisms through which consolidation deficits
translate into constrained international agency. The findings demonstrate that
foreign policy autonomy is not determined by material power alone but is
critically mediated by domestic political legitimacy, institutional capacity,
economic stability, security conditions, and elite consensus. In both cases,
legitimacy crises undermined diplomatic credibility, economic vulnerabilities
narrowed strategic options, security preoccupations diverted resources inward,
and domestic veto players constrained executive flexibility in international
negotiations. The study further reveals that the relationship between
consolidation and autonomy is non-linear and dynamic, with feedback effects
whereby foreign policy failures exacerbate domestic political weaknesses,
creating reinforcing cycles of constraint. Comparatively, the analysis
identifies convergent patterns of constrained regional leadership alongside
divergent dynamics rooted in institutional quality, coalition politics,
alliance preferences, and regional organizational contexts. These findings
refine neoclassical realist theory by foregrounding political legitimacy as a
critical yet under-theorized intervening variable linking domestic politics to
foreign policy outcomes, and by demonstrating multiple causal pathways through
which consolidation deficits limit international agency. The study concludes that
sustained foreign policy autonomy in emerging democracies depends fundamentally
on domestic political consolidation. By integrating insights from international
relations and comparative democratization scholarship, the article contributes
to broader debates on power, autonomy, and leadership in the Global South, with
policy-relevant implications for democratic consolidation, regional governance,
and international partnership strategies.
