Menu Close

The Impact of Political Campaigns, Social Media, and Voter Behaviour on Electoral Outcomes in Rohtak: A Comparative Study of the 2024 Elections

The 2024 Indian general election in the Rohtak parliamentary constituency of Haryana produced a decisive reversal of the 2019 outcome: Deepender Singh Hooda of the Indian National Congress defeated the sitting Bharatiya Janata Party member, Dr Arvind Kumar Sharma, by a margin of 345,298 votes (62.9 per cent vote share), compared with a razor-thin 7,503-vote BJP win in 2019. This paper examines the extent to which political campaigning, social media communication and voter-behaviour dynamics contributed to this swing, situating the Rohtak case within the wider comparative literature on digital campaigning in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Drawing on Election Commission of India constituency data, official campaign chronology reported in the national press, and a synthesis of recent peer-reviewed studies on social media and Indian electoral behaviour, the paper develops a conceptual model linking campaign exposure, social-media usage and political communication (independent variables) through political awareness, trust and engagement (mediators) to voting decisions and electoral outcomes (dependent variables), moderated by age, gender, education and rural/urban residence. A mixed-methods research design combining a structured voter survey, key-informant interviews and social-media content analysis is proposed for empirical testing of the model in Rohtak. Because a completed voter survey for Rohtak was not available at the time of writing, the paper stops short of reporting primary statistical results; instead it presents the verified secondary evidence, the theoretical and conceptual apparatus, and a fully specified methodology, and flags precisely which sections require the author’s own field data before the manuscript can be submitted to a Scopus, Web of Science or UGC-CARE-indexed journal. The paper contributes a constituency-level analytical framework for studying digital political communication in a family-dominated, semi-urban north Indian seat, and offers practical and policy recommendations on digital literacy, platform regulation and campaign transparency.